Air Cargo forecast for 2012, revised by IATA

While Boeing is forecasting a longterm surge in air cargo demand, a more sobering view was expressed by The International Air Transport Association (IATA) yesterday.
The immediate short-term outlook is so dim, in fact, that IATA announced revisions to its industry forecast. This is in marked contrast to the recent bullish news coming from one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers. “World air cargo traffic will triple over the next 20 years, according to Jim Edgar, regional director of Cargo Marketing for Boeing. “And cargo rates should mirror demand.” “From now through 2029, we expect world air cargo traffic to grow at an annual rate of 5.9 percent,” Edgar says. “Asia will continue to be at the forefront of the air cargo industry. Routes associated with Asia will continue to experience the world’s highest growth rates over the next 20 years, at 6.8 percent.” “The biggest risk facing airline profitability over the next year is the economic turmoil that would result from a failure of governments to resolve the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Such an outcome could lead to losses of over $8 billion— the largest since the 2008 financial crisis,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.